科技革新下的能源格局分析与展望——基于《bp世界能源展望(2025版)》
Analysis and outlook of the energy landscape under technological innovation —based on the bp World Energy Outlook(Rev. 2025)
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- 引用格式:
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张恩杰,李洪言,陶明毅,宋燿威,代晓东,刘安琪,张程程,李延鹏.科技革新下的能源格局分析与展望——基于《bp世界能源展望(2025版)》[J].天然气与石油,2026,44(2):112-122.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2026.02.014
Zhang Enjie, Li Hongyan, Tao Mingyi, Song Yaowei, Dai Xiaodong, Liu Anqi, Zhang Chengcheng, Li Yanpeng.Analysis and outlook of the energy landscape under technological innovation —based on the bp World Energy Outlook(Rev. 2025)[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2026,44(2):112-122.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2026.02.014
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2026.02.014
- 作者:
- 张恩杰1 李洪言1,2 陶明毅1 宋燿威1 代晓东1,2 刘安琪3 张程程3 李延鹏1
Zhang Enjie1, Li Hongyan1,2, Tao Mingyi1, Song Yaowei1, Dai Xiaodong1,2, Liu Anqi3, Zhang Chengcheng3, Li Yanpeng1
- 作者单位:
- 1. 山东石油化工学院石油工程学院, 山东 东营 257061; 2. 油气藏高效勘探开发与地质工程一体化山东省工程研究中心, 山东 东营 257061; 3. 山东省东营市科技创新服务中心, 山东 东营 257091
1. School of Petroleum Engineering, Shandong Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Dongying, Shandong, 257061, China; 2. Efficient Exploration and Development of Oil and Gas Reservoirs and the Integration of Geology and Engineering Shandong Provincial Engineering Research Center, Dongying, Shandong, 257061, China; 3. Dongying Technology Innovation Service Center, Dongying, Shandong, 257091, China
- 关键词:
- 低碳转型;bp世界能源展望;人工智能;CCUS
Low-carbon transition; bp World Energy Outlook; Artificial intelligence; CCUS
- 摘要:
- 全球能源体系正处于转型升级的关键时期,科技革新与“双碳”目标共同推动能源格局的重构。以《bp世界能源展望(2025版)》为数据支撑核心,构建“当前轨迹”与“全球变暖低于2 ℃”两种情景,系统分析石油、天然气、煤炭、现代生物能源及氢能的供需趋势,结合人工智能技术与碳捕集、利用与封存(Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage,CCUS)等低碳技术革新影响,揭示全球能源转型逻辑与区域分化特征。研究发现:2023—2050年,化石能源仍将占据核心地位,但需求增速放缓,长期消费呈下降趋势;煤炭在亚洲新兴经济体的支撑下短期维持9×109 t级产量,2035年后逐步回落;可再生能源需求增速显著,人工智能推动能源效率提升的同时,也带来数据中心电力需求激增;区域层面,中国、印度等新兴经济体成为能源需求增长核心,美国、欧盟则主导低碳技术研发与应用。研究成果可为全球能源转型战略制定与区域能源安全保障提供参考。
The global energy system is in a critical period of transformation and upgrading, with technological innovation and the “dual carbon” goals jointly driving the restructuring of the energy landscape. Based on core data from the bp World Energy Outlook(Rev. 2025), this paper develops two scenarios—“Current Trajectory” and “Global Warming Below 2 ℃”—to systematically analyze the supply and demand trends of oil, natural gas, coal, modern bioenergy, and hydrogen. Combined with the technological innovation effect of artificial intelligence technology and the development of low-carbon technologies such as Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), it reveals the logic of global energy transition and the characteristics of regional differentiation. The research finds that from 2023 to 2050, fossil fuels will remain central, but demand growth will slow with a long-term downward trend in consumption. Supported by emerging Asian economies, coal production will maintain production at the 9 billion-ton level in the short term and gradually decline after 2035. Renewable energy demand will grow significantly; while artificial intelligence promotes improvements in energy efficiency, it also leads to a surge in electricity demand from data centers. At the regional level, emerging economies such as China and India are becoming the core drivers of energy demand growth, while the United States and the European Union dominate the R & D and application of low-carbon technologies. This study can provide references for the formulation of global energy transition strategies and securing regional energy supply.
