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Issue:ISSN 1006-5539
          CN 51-1183/TE

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    Your Position ：Home->Past Journals Catalog->2011 Vol.3

    Study on Civil Natural Gas Load Prediction in Shengli Oil Field
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    Key Words：Shengli Oil Field； Natural gas load； Prediction； Exponential smoothing
    Abstract：Civil natural gas load in Shengli Oil Field is uneven and changes along with different areas， different time in one day and different months in one year， which brings a lot of troubles to local gas transportation and distribution system. Exponential Smoothing Method is introduced to predict civil natural gas load in the future in order to solve those troubles. Posterior Variance Test Method is adopted to test the prediction results and it is found that accuracy standard of results from linear mode is grade 1 and accuracy standard of results from secondary curve mode is grade 2. The right mode may be selected according to accuracy demand in actual situations.
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