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Tang Xiaoyong,Pu Liming
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Issue:ISSN 1006-5539
          CN 51-1183/TE

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    Your Position ：Home->Past Journals Catalog->2011 Vol.3

    Prediction for Coal Bed Gas Output Based On Fractal and ARIMA
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    Key Words： Coal bed gas output prediction； Fractal analysis； Autoregressive integrated moving average model； Heavy standard differential R/S； Time series
    Abstract：Coal bed gas production capacity may be affected by many complex factors， these factors are difficult to control， its simulation process is complicated， relative information is difficult to obtain and it is necessary to analyze accurately coal bed gas potential production capacity by adopting other mathematics methods in case of incomplete information. Adopted is fractal theory of R/S （Heavy Standard Differential Method） analysis method to analyze variation trend of coal bed gas production capacity， adopted is the modeling method ARIMA， which is based on the mathematical statistics theory， to predict coal bed gas output in order to use the parameter estimation in the R/S analysis method to reflect adaptability of the ARIMA model and increase prediction accuracy. Applied is the fractal-ARIMA prediction method to predict production output of one coal bed gas well in Qinshui， Shanxi Province in China and verification results show that such prediction results are accurate and are consistent with coal bed gas production output variation of this gas well. The fractal-ARIMA prediction method can make full use of information obtained already to realize dynamic extrapolation prediction in case of lack of information necessary in dynamic prediction method of coal bed gas production output based on fractal analysis and ARIMA model.
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