Study on pipeline predictive maintenance considering stochastic correlation between degradation and shock process

Author of the article:LI Wenqin, SHI Hui, Zheng Yujia, DONG Zengshou

Author's Workplace：College of Electronic Information Engineering, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030024, China

Key Words：Natural gas pipeline; Reliability analysis; Predictive maintenance

Abstract： A predictive maintenance strategy based on system residual life considering the stochastic correlation between degradation and shock is proposed for natural gas pipeline maintenance under the influence of both degradation and external shock. Firstly, the stochastic correlation model of pipeline degradation and shock and the reliability model based on variable threshold are established. Secondly, the predictive maintenance decision model is established and optimized according to the reliability of pipeline. Finally, the sensitivity of maintenance cost is analyzed with actual data. The results show that the maintenance decision model can effectively improve the safety performance of natural gas pipelines under the premise of reduced costs, and has good theoretical reference value.