Exploring the risk quantification simulation in international project business negotiations

Author of the article:DONG Chao, WU Kun, CONG Ran, WANG Junping

Author's Workplace：CPECC, Beijing, 100120, China

Key Words：Risk quantification; Business negotiations; Contract deviations; Decision making during bidding

Abstract： This article is to explore ways of responding to price reduction requests from clients through risk quantification simulation in business negotiations, thus providing support for decision making during bidding. Taking an LNG construction bidding project in the Middle East as a case study, using the simulation function of @RISK risk quantification software, the risk items of the project are analyzed first, and then the specific impact of different contract deviations on reducing risk costs is analyzed, providing objective support data for business negotiations. This method is not limited to specific cases but can be extended to other business negotiations, offering new perspectives and tool support for various decision making during bidding. Future research could further explore business negotiation cases in different industries and project types, integrating a variety of risk quantification tools to provide diversified support for business negotiation decision making.