Analysis of the World Energy Outlook in 2050
Author of the article:LI Hongyan1, ZHENG Yiming1, JI Yinli2, YU Miao1, SHEN Yitian1, ZHANG Shengran3, LIU Yongyu1, WANG Haiyang2, CHEN Ziwen1, DAI Xiaodong1
Author's Workplace:1. College of Petroleum Engineering, Shandong Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Dongying, Shandong, 257061, China; 2. Shandong Yellow River Delta Sustainable Development Research Institute, Dongying, Shandong, 257000, China; 3. Dongying Science and Technology Innovation Service Center, Dongying, Shandong, 257100, China
Key Words:bp;Year 2050; Energy outlook
Abstract:
In order to predict the trends of world energy
development in 2050, the development trends of the world energy market in 2050
is analyzed and summarized based on the report “bp World Energy Outlook(2024
Edition)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outlook”) published by bp. In the Outlook,
two different development scenarios are set up, namely the “current path scenario” and the “net zero scenario”. The analysis results
show that under the “current path scenario”, the growth rate of total primary energy demand will fluctuate
moderately and stay at a plateau level during the outlook period. Fossil energy
will account for twothirds of
primary energy consumption by 2050, and oil will continue to play an important
role in the world's energy
system despite a gradual decline in its consumption. Demand for natural gas
shows a growing trend due to the development of emerging economies; and carbon
emissions remain high under this scenario. In contrast, in the “Net
Zero Scenario”, the world's energy system will undergo more significant
changes, with primary energy demand peaking in 2030 and then gradually
declining, and the share of fossil energy in primary energy will drop to less
than one-third in 2050, with
net carbon emissions in the energy system approaching zero. Oil and natural gas
demand will be reduced by 65% and 62%, respectively, compared to 2022. In both
scenarios, demand for renewable energy and lowcarbon
hydrogen grows rapidly. China is committed to transitioning to a low-carbon energy system in order to reduce carbon
emissions, and energy consumption and carbon emissions are expected to fall
significantly by 2050, with a faster energy transformation and a higher share
of low-carbon energy in the
Net Zero Scenario, in which CCUS technologies will play a key role. The results
of the analysis can provide reference for the transformation and development of
the worlds energy structure.