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    Your Position :Home->Past Journals Catalog->2025 Vol.1

    Analysis of the World Energy Outlook in 2050
    Author of the article:LI Hongyan1, ZHENG Yiming1, JI Yinli2, YU Miao1, SHEN Yitian1, ZHANG Shengran3, LIU Yongyu1, WANG Haiyang2, CHEN Ziwen1, DAI Xiaodong1
    Author's Workplace:1. College of Petroleum Engineering, Shandong Institute of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Dongying, Shandong, 257061, China; 2. Shandong Yellow River Delta Sustainable Development Research Institute, Dongying, Shandong, 257000, China; 3. Dongying Science and Technology Innovation Service Center, Dongying, Shandong, 257100, China
    Key Words:bp;Year 2050; Energy outlook
    Abstract:

    In order to predict the trends of world energy development in 2050, the development trends of the world energy market in 2050 is analyzed and summarized based on the report bp World Energy Outlook(2024 Edition) (hereinafter referred to as the Outlook) published by bp. In the Outlook, two different development scenarios are set up, namely the current path scenario and the net zero scenario. The analysis results show that under the current path scenario, the growth rate of total primary energy demand will fluctuate moderately and stay at a plateau level during the outlook period. Fossil energy will account for twothirds of primary energy consumption by 2050, and oil will continue to play an important role in the world's energy system despite a gradual decline in its consumption. Demand for natural gas shows a growing trend due to the development of emerging economies; and carbon emissions remain high under this scenario. In contrast, in the Net Zero Scenario, the world's energy system will undergo more significant changes, with primary energy demand peaking in 2030 and then gradually declining, and the share of fossil energy in primary energy will drop to less than one-third in 2050, with net carbon emissions in the energy system approaching zero. Oil and natural gas demand will be reduced by 65% and 62%, respectively, compared to 2022. In both scenarios, demand for renewable energy and lowcarbon hydrogen grows rapidly. China is committed to transitioning to a low-carbon energy system in order to reduce carbon emissions, and energy consumption and carbon emissions are expected to fall significantly by 2050, with a faster energy transformation and a higher share of low-carbon energy in the Net Zero Scenario, in which CCUS technologies will play a key role. The results of the analysis can provide reference for the transformation and development of the worlds energy structure.

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