基于分形与ARIMA的煤层气产量预测
Prediction for Coal Bed Gas Output Based On Fractal and ARIMA
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- 引用格式:
-
王,宇,李治平,刘,超.基于分形与ARIMA的煤层气产量预测[J].天然气与石油,2011,29(3):0.doi:
.Prediction for Coal Bed Gas Output Based On Fractal and ARIMA[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2011,29(3):0.doi:
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 王 宇 李治平 刘 超
- 作者单位:
- 中国地质大学（北京）
- 关键词:
- 煤层气产量预测；分形分析；自回归综合移动平均模型；重标级差R/S；时间序列
Coal bed gas output prediction； Fractal analysis； Autoregressive integrated moving average model； Heavy standard differential R/S； Time series
- 摘要:
- 煤层气产能受多种因素影响，错综复杂，难以控制，模拟过程复杂、资料难获得，有必要在资料不完全的情况下通过其他数学方法对煤层气产能潜力进行正确的分析。利用分形理论的R/S（重标极差法）分析方法对煤层气产量变化趋势进行分析，应用基于数理统计理论的ARIMA建模方法进行产量预测，可将R/S分析法中的参数估计来反映ARIMA模型适应性，提高预测准确性。应用分形-ARIMA预测方法对山西沁水某煤层气井产量进行了产量预测，经证明，预测结果具有较高精度，满足煤层气产量变化情况。基于分形分析与ARIMA模型的煤层气产量动态预测方法所需资料少，能够充分利用所掌握信息实现动态外推预报。
Coal bed gas production capacity may be affected by many complex factors， these factors are difficult to control， its simulation process is complicated， relative information is difficult to obtain and it is necessary to analyze accurately coal bed gas potential production capacity by adopting other mathematics methods in case of incomplete information. Adopted is fractal theory of R/S （Heavy Standard Differential Method） analysis method to analyze variation trend of coal bed gas production capacity， adopted is the modeling method ARIMA， which is based on the mathematical statistics theory， to predict coal bed gas output in order to use the parameter estimation in the R/S analysis method to reflect adaptability of the ARIMA model and increase prediction accuracy. Applied is the fractal-ARIMA prediction method to predict production output of one coal bed gas well in Qinshui， Shanxi Province in China and verification results show that such prediction results are accurate and are consistent with coal bed gas production output variation of this gas well. The fractal-ARIMA prediction method can make full use of information obtained already to realize dynamic extrapolation prediction in case of lack of information necessary in dynamic prediction method of coal bed gas production output based on fractal analysis and ARIMA model.
