基于蒙特卡罗模拟的海外油气项目评价研究
Evaluation and Research on Overseas Oil and Gas Projects Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
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- 引用格式:
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李世群,张宝生,唐旭.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的海外油气项目评价研究[J].天然气与石油,2016,34(1):0.doi:
Li Shiqun, Zhang Baosheng, Tang Xu.Evaluation and Research on Overseas Oil and Gas Projects Based on Monte Carlo Simulation [J].Natural Gas and Oil,2016,34(1):0.doi:
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 李世群 张宝生 唐旭
Li Shiqun, Zhang Baosheng, Tang Xu
- 作者单位:
- 中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院
School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum (Beijing)
- 关键词:
- 蒙特卡罗模拟;国际石油合同;经济评价;海外油气项目;油价
Monte Carlo Simulation; International oil contract; Economic evaluation; International oil and gas projects; Oil price
- 摘要:
- 为了应对中国海外油气项目开发过程中的风险和不确定性,特别是近年来国际油价变化幅度超出了大多数研究机构和学者的预测范围,有必要对海外油气项目评价进行深入研究。从国际石油合同及经济评价指标出发,以影响海外油气项目经济评价的主要参数为基础,通过蒙特卡罗模拟的方法进行定量分析。研究结果证明,蒙特卡罗模拟的经济评价结果比确定性评价结果更准确和灵活;基于蒙特卡罗模拟的海外油气项目经济评价的研究结果,有利于弥补一般油气项目经济评价对风险因素的考虑不足,特别在国际油价等变量发生大幅变化的情况下,能够为海外油气项目决策提供更全面的参考。
In recent year, international crude oil price fluctuates dramatically, which greatly exceeds the amplitude of fluctuation estimated by most research institutions and academics. In order to cope with high uncertainties and risks during oversea oil and gas project development, it is necessary to conduct an intensive study on oversea oil and gas project evaluation. Starting from international oil contract and the parameters of economic evaluation and based on the main parameters of economic evaluation in the international oil and gas cooperation, Monte Carlo analysis method is applied in contract quantitative analysis. The results show that economic evaluation results obtained by using Monte Carlo simulation are more accurate and flexible than deterministic evaluation results. This study indicates that international oil and gas cooperation economic evaluation based on Monte Carlo simulation will be more accurate. Especially in such external conditions with significant fluctuation, the results of economic evaluation based on Monte Carlo simulation can provide more comprehensive references for oversea oil and gas project investment decision-making.