2016年世界能源供需情况分析与未来展望——基于《BP世界能源统计年鉴》与《BP世界能源展望》
Analysis on World Energy Supply & Demand in 2016 and Future Prospects—Based on BP Statistical Review on World Energy and BP World Energy Prospect
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- 引用格式:
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代晓东,王余宝,毕晓光,路用瑞,梁继航,郭文玉.2016年世界能源供需情况分析与未来展望——基于《BP世界能源统计年鉴》与《BP世界能源展望》[J].天然气与石油,2017,35(6):0.doi:
Dai Xiaodong, Wang Yubao, Bi Xiaoguang, Lu Yongrui, Liang Jihang, Guo Wenyu.Analysis on World Energy Supply & Demand in 2016 and Future Prospects—Based on BP Statistical Review on World Energy and BP World Energy Prospect[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2017,35(6):0.doi:
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 代晓东1 王余宝1 毕晓光2 路用瑞1 梁继航1 郭文玉1
Dai Xiaodong1, Wang Yubao1, Bi Xiaoguang2, Lu Yongrui1, Liang Jihang1, Guo Wenyu1
- 作者单位:
- 1. 中国石油大学胜利学院油气工程学院, 2. 胜利油田东胜精攻石油开发有限公司
1.Shengli Institute of China University of Petroleum, 2. Shengli Oilfield Dongshengjingong Oil Development Co., Ltd
- 关键词:
- 2016年;能源;供需分析;展望
2016; Energy; Supply and demand analysis; Prediction
- 摘要:
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2016年世界能源消费增长依旧缓慢,连续三年徘徊在1 % 左右,能源消费转向更低碳能源。世界石油探明储量、产量和消费量均小幅增加;天然气探明储量和产量微增,消费量增速放缓,但管道气和液化天然气(LNG)贸易量增长;煤炭储采比高,产量和消费继续下滑;其他能源(核、水、风、太阳、生物燃料等)发展较传统化石燃料增长快速。能源结构的变化和经济增长放缓共同作用了世界碳排放的低速增长。预计到2035年,世界能源需求年增长率1.3% ,主要来自新兴经济体。天然气消费增长要高于煤炭与石油,石油仍是世界的主导燃料,煤炭的需求将在2025年达到峰值,核电、水电和再生能源在一次能源中的占比有望从15% 上升至23% 。
According to the BP report to world energy supply and demand investigation in 2016, the growth of world energy consumption was still around 1% for 3 years from 2014, and was turned to lower carbon energy. For petroleum, the explored reserves, production and consumption were slightly increased. For natural gas, the explored reserves and production slightly increased, while the consumption growth slowed down. However, pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas trade volume increased rapidly. For coal, the reserve was rich, while the production and consumption declined continuously. Other energy, such as nuclear, water, wind, sun, biofuels, etc., develop faster than traditional fossil fuels. The energy structure adjustment and economic growth slowdown contributed to the slow growth of the world's carbon emissions. To 2035, it is predicted that energy demand of the whole world would grow at an annual rate of 1.3%, mainly from emerging economies. Natural gas consumption growth will be higher than coal and petroleum. And the petroleum will still be the world's leading fuel, but coal demand will peak in 2025. Nuclear power, hydropower and renewable energy in the primary energy are expected to rise from 15% to 23%.