为评价输油管道加剂运行状态,建立减阻效果预测模型。针对已有模型无法实现不同工况下减阻效果的类比预测，在应用中需提前求解模型待定系数，所求参数不具备横向扩展应用性等问题,在相关模型基础上,通过分析处理现场加剂试验数据对其进行相似性修正,引入管径、油品黏度修正系数,简化减阻效果预测复杂度,扩大预测模型适用范围;在考虑了减阻剂剪切稀释性问题后,根据管道实际加剂情况,量化求解降解率系数,提高模型预测精度;基于现场试验数据进行回归验证,求得模型待定系数值;最后得到适用于原油和成品油管道的通用减阻效果预测模型,并结合现场试验数据进行误差分析,检测预测模型精度。结果表明,经试验数据相似性修正得到的减阻效果预测模型,与经验公式的预测效果相比，预测精度有所提升，优于原有模型，可用于指导减阻剂在现场的应用,改善模型参数无法横向扩展应用的问题,实现减阻效果类比预测功能。

In Order to evaluate the running state of oil pipeline additives，a drag reduction effect prediction model was established.In  0rder to solve the problems that the existing model cannot realize the analogy prediction of drag reduction effect under different working conditions，the undetermined coefficients of the model need to be solved in advancein the application，and the obtained parameters do not have the applicability of lateral expansion，based on the relevant model，the similarity correction is carried out by analyzing and processing the field additive test data，and the correction coefficients of pipe diameter and oil viscosity are introduced to simplify the prediction complexity of drag reduction effectand expand the application range of the prediction model.After considering the problem of shear dilution of drag reducer，the degradation rate coefficient is quantitatively calculated according to the actual adding  condition of pipeline to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Based on the fie1d test data，regression verification is carried out to obtain the value of the undetermined coefficients of the model.Finally，a eneral model for predicting the drag reduction effect of crude oil and product oil pipelines is obtained,and error analysis is carried out incombinationwithfieldtest data to check the accuracy of the prediction model.The results show that the drag reduction effect prediction model obtained by the similarity correction of test data has better prediction precision compared with empirical equation,and can beused to guide the application of drag reduction agentsin the field,improve the problem that the model parameters cannot be applied laterally,and realize the function of drag reduction effect analogy prediction.