基于概率模型的气井投资评价方法
Evaluation Method of Gas Well Investment Based on Probability Model
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- 引用格式:
-
赵益,任科,唐刚.基于概率模型的气井投资评价方法[J].天然气与石油,2019,37(1):122-126.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2019.01.020
Zhao Yi, Ren Ke, Tang Gang.Evaluation Method of Gas Well Investment Based on Probability Model[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2019,37(1):122-126.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2019.01.020
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2019.01.020
- 作者:
- 赵 益1 任 科2 唐 刚1
Zhao Yi1, Ren Ke2, Tang Gang1
- 作者单位:
- 1. 中国石油西南油气田分公司勘探开发研究院,2. 中国石油西南油气田分公司储气库管理处
1. Exploration and Development Research Institute of PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Compan;2. Gas Storage Administrative Office of PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company
- 关键词:
- 概率函数;现金流法;气井效益;投资评价
Probability function; Cash flow method; Gas well efficiency; Investment evaluation
- 摘要:
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气井投资评价对气田经济有效开发十分重要,传统的现金流法评价周期长、评价结果滞后,不利于气田开发部署的及时调整。通过对四川盆地天然气气井效益和现金流法优缺点分折,引入单位无阻流量投资新参数来表征气井效益。研究表明,单位无阻流量投资和气井效益之间存在正态分布关系,在此基础上建立了利用单位无阻流量投资进行气井效益评价的概率模型,求解该概率模型就可在气井完成试气测试获得气井无阻流量参数后进行效益评价,即可大幅度缩短气井投资评价周期,对气井投资决策有重要的现实意义。
The cash flow method is widely used in gas well investment evaluation, which has the disadvantages of long evaluation cycle and lag of evaluation results, and is not conducive to timely deployment and adjustment.In order to overcome this problem, this paper focuses on the wells internal revenue rate and calculation method in Sichuan basin, and defines a new parameter: the unit investment of absolute open flow. The parameter is proved that it has normal distribution relationship with the wells efficiency.So then, the probability model is presented about gas wells efficiency through the unit investment of absolute open flow. Because of the model, gas well efficiency evaluation is completed immediately after the well testing.The model and method presented in this paper have a guiding significance for the gas well investment and the development of gas field.
