针对水驱气藏动态储量计算目前常用的上翘型无因次生产指示曲线与气藏生产实际不完全符合的情况，基于产水气藏物质平衡动态预测方法,选用CarterTracy非稳态和Schithuis稳态两种水侵量计算模型,在考虑和不考虑产水条件的生产指标进行对比的基础上,对影响水驱气藏生产指示曲线的因素进行研究。研究表明:考虑产水预测的水驱气藏生产指示曲线整体为光滑上凸曲线,其前期可表现出上翘、近似直线或下弯特征;气藏水体半径、水层渗透率(水侵指数)、岩石压缩系数、地层水压缩系数、气藏埋深、采气速度等对生产指示曲线形状有明显影响。经长岩心衰竭实验和目前已经废弃或接近废弃的三个典型异常高压气藏和两个正常压力系统水驱气藏的生产资料验证,对水驱气藏生产指示曲线的新认识符合实际。

In the calculation of dynamic OGIP, the uptrend of dimensionless production indicative curve is not completely consistent with the nature of real water drive gas reservoirs.On the basis of the material balance theory combined with the aquifer model of Carter-Tracy and Schithuis, we compared the gas production with water or without water production, and analyzed the sensitivity of factors affecting production indicative curve of water drive gas reservoir.The production indicative curve of water drive gas reservoir is smoothly up convex on the whole.In the early stage, it takes the form of uptrend, straight or lower bending trend.The factors consist of aquifer volume, permeability of water bearing zone (water invasion index), compressibility coefficient of rock and formation water, formation depth and gas recovery rate.It was also proved by the depletion test with long core plug and the production practice of five real depleted water drive gas reservoirs that the conclusion is of guiding significance for actual development law.