随着全球气候越来越复杂多变,全球能源的供应局势日益紧张,天然气贸易活动呈现日渐频繁的趋势,继而大大加快了全球天然气贸易数量的增长速度。为了在降低温室气体排放量的同时使能源供应的安全性得到有效保障,中国也开始提升能源消费结构中天然气的占比。研究分析了LNG国际供需发展格局,提出了中国进口LNG的安全应急策略,包括制定LNG供应安全方案、定量化LNG海运运输风险、明晰LNG海运的运输风险指数等,以使LNG的进口安全得到有效保障。中国LNG进口依存量较大,应制定更加安全的进口策略,巩固能源供应安全,满足发展需求,保障低碳经济发展。

As the global climate becomes more and more complex and volatile, the global energy supply is getting more and more constrained, and the global natural gas trading activities are increasingly more frequent, thus considerably accelerating the growth rate of global natural gas trading volume. In order to guarantee the security of energy supply while reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, China is beginning to increase the proportion of natural gas in the energy consumption supply chain structure. In this paper, the development pattern of international LNG supply and demand have been analyzed, and an emergency response strategy for supply security of China’s LNG import has also been proposed, including formulating a LNG supply security plan, quantifying LNG shipping risks, and clarifying LNG shipping risk indices to effectively ensure the security of LNG imports. As China still relies on imports for a large portion of its LNG demand, a more secure import strategy should be developed to consolidate energy supply security, satisfy development demand, and guarantee the development low-carbon footprint economy.