基于改进D-S证据理论的站场特定单元可靠性分析
Reliability analysis of station specific equipment unit in field stations based on improved D-S evidence theory
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- 引用格式:
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鲍明昱,崔铭芳,彭星煜,刘畅.基于改进D-S证据理论的站场特定单元可靠性分析[J].天然气与石油,2021,39(4):1-7.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2021.04.001
BAO Mingyu, CUI Mingfang, PENG Xingyu, LIU Chang.Reliability analysis of station specific equipment unit in field stations based on improved D-S evidence theory[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2021,39(4):1-7.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2021.04.001
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2021.04.001
- 作者:
- 鲍明昱1 崔铭芳1 彭星煜2 刘畅1
BAO Mingyu1, CUI Mingfang1, PENG Xingyu2, LIU Chang1
- 作者单位:
- 1. 中国石油西南油气田公司安全环保与技术监督研究院, 四川 成都 610041; 2. 西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院, 四川 成都 610500
1. Safety, Environment & Technology Supervision Research Institute, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China; 2. Petroleum Engineering School, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610500, China
- 关键词:
- 专家打分法;可靠性分析;D-S证据理论;评价等级;置信度
Expert scoring method; Reliability analysis; D-S evidence theory; Evaluation rating; Confidence level
- 摘要:
- 采用专家打分法对站场特定单元设备进行可靠性分析时,专家因认知局限和个人偏好对同一事物属性评价存在差异,而最终决定的评价等级会影响失效概率的计算结果。针对属性评价值为语言变量、专家评价等级不一致的决策问题,提出一种基于改进D-S(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论的评价等级决策方法。为此,就D-S证据理论的原理和常规证据冲突处理方法进行了介绍,针对传统证据理论未考虑证据源置信度的问题,引入专家权威性系数和专家评价一致度系数,确定专家的置信度作为证据源的置信度,对证据可信度进行修正,选取最终的专家评价等级对设备进行可靠性分析。算例验证了该方法能够有效实现最终评价等级的决策,使可靠性分析的结果更为准确。
When the expert scoring method was applied on reliability analysis of specific equipment unit in a field station, there were differences in the evaluation of the attribute of the same thing due to constraints and limitations of past experience and personal preferences, and the decision of the final evaluation rating would affect the calculated results of the failure probability. Aiming to resolve the problem of decision-making whereby the attribute evaluation result was a linguistic variable and the expert evaluation ratings were inconsistent, a decision-making method based on improved D-S(Dempster-Shafer) evidence theory was put forward for evaluating the result of reliability analysis. This paper introduced the principle of D-S evidence theory and the conventional evidence conflict processing method. Considering the fact that the traditional evidence theory does not consider the confidence level of the evidence source, this paper introduced the coefficient of expert authority level and the expert evaluation consistency coefficient, which proposed that the confidence level of experts is to be determined as the confidence level of evidence source. The credibility of the evidence is then corrected accordingly, and the final expert evaluation rating can be determined and applied to the reliability analysis of the equipment. The calculation from a case study verifies that the method can effectively arrive at the decision of the final evaluation rating and make the reliability analysis results more accurate.
