加氢站是氢能供应的重要保障,是支撑氢能交通发展必不可少的基础设施,对现有加油站进行油氢合建改造是未来加氢站建设与发展的重要发展方向之一。加氢站投资建设面临制氢成本、销售市场和售价竞争力等多种不确定性,投资效益及投资风险评估是科学投资决策的前提,但目前尚缺乏系统性研究。构建了加氢站投资效益评价和风险评价方法,在对张家口某加氢站建设项目数据进行分析的基础上,明确影响加氢站投资效益的关键因素,结合国内外数据确定关键因素的随机分布形式和参数,采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对加氢站的投资效益进行多因素的风险模拟。模拟结果显示:不同制氢方式的氢气成本对加氢站投资的经济效益具有较大影响;相比较下，投资净现值对氢气成本的敏感性高于其对氢气售价的敏感性;加氢站氢气销量并不是决定项目投资风险的关键因素,但却是决定项目投资回收期的重要因素。研究结论对中国加氢站投资建设与风险评估具有一定的借鉴和指导意义。

Hydrogen refueling station is an important guarantee for hydrogen energy supply and an essential infrastructure to support the development of hydrogen energy transportation. The conversion of existing petrol station into petrol-hydrogen joint refueling station is one of the major development directions. The investment on hydrogen refueling station is facing many uncertainties such as hydrogen production cost, market demand and price competitiveness. The investment return and investment risk assessment are the premise of scientific investment decision-making, but there is still a lack of systematic research. Therefore, this paper develops the investment return assessment and risk analysis method of the hydrogen refueling station. Based on the analysis on the data of the petrol-hydrogen joint refueling station development in Zhangjiakou, the key factors affecting the investment return of the refueling station are defined, and the random distribution forms and parameters of the key factors are determined in combination with the data available from home and abroad. Monte Carlo Simulation method is used to carry out multi-factor risk simulation of the investment benefit and risks of hydrogen refueling station. The simulation results show that the hydrogen production cost of different hydrogen production methods has a great impact on the benefits of the investment on the hydrogen refueling station. In comparison, the influence of hydrogen price on Net Present Value (NPV) is lower than that of hydrogen production cost. The hydrogen sales volume of the hydrogen refueling station is not the key factor to determine the investment risk of the project, but is an important factor to determine the investment payback period of the project. The research conclusion provides reference and guidance for the investment, development and risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations in China.