采用水平井开发底水油藏,投产前预测水平段不同部位的产量和见水时间、投产后预测底水水脊形态是优化水平井生产制度的重要内容。基于稳定渗流理论,全面考虑油藏物性变化、渗透率各向异性、水平段趾端到跟端的井筒内流动压降以及井眼轨迹高低变化等影响因素,建立了底水油藏中流体运移的数学模型以及计算水平井水平段不同部位见水时间的方法。使用该方法预测了某裸眼完井水平井水平段的产量和见水时间,与实际生产结果吻合良好,计算的底水水脊形态与物理模拟实验观测得到的规律一致,说明该方法实用性较强、准确度较高,可以为水平井完井方案及生产制度优化提供参考。

When using horizontal wells to develop bottom water reservoirs, predicting the production and water breakthrough time frame of different parts of the horizontal section before production, and predicting the bottom water coning after production are important issues to optimize the production system of horizontal wells. Based on the theory of stable seepage, this paper comprehensively considers the influencing factors such as the change of reservoir physical properties, permeability anisotropy, wellbore flowing pressure drop from horizontal toe to heel, and the uneven wellbore trajectory, establishes the mathematical model of fluid migration in bottom water reservoir, and then obtains the method to calculate the water breakthrough time frame at different parts of horizontal section of horizontal well. This method is used to predict the production and water breakthrough time in the horizontal section of an open hole completion horizontal well, which is in good agreement with the actual production results. The calculated bottom water coning is consistent with the law observed by physical simulation experiment, which shows that this method has strong practicability and high accuracy, and can provide reference for the optimization of horizontal well completion scheme and production system.