基于贝叶斯—蝴蝶结的输气管道环 焊缝失效风险识别与分析模型
Identification and analysis of failure risk of gas transmission pipeline girth welds based on Bayesian-bow-tie model
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- 引用格式:
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刘嘉玥,黄嘉伟,董绍华.基于贝叶斯—蝴蝶结的输气管道环 焊缝失效风险识别与分析模型[J].天然气与石油,2022,40(5):132-138.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2022.05.020
LIU Jiayue, HUANG Jiawei, DONG Shaohua.Identification and analysis of failure risk of gas transmission pipeline girth welds based on Bayesian-bow-tie model[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2022,40(5):132-138.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2022.05.020
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2022.05.020
- 作者:
- 刘嘉玥1,2 黄嘉伟1,2 董绍华1,2
LIU Jiayue1,2, HUANG Jiawei1,2, DONG Shaohua1,2
- 作者单位:
- 1. 中国石油大学(北京)管道技术与安全研究中心, 北京 102200; 2. 中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院, 北京 102200
1. China University of Petroleum (Beijing) Oil & Gas Pipeline Research Center, Beijing, 102200, China; 2. China University of Petroleum (Beijing) College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, Beijing, 102200, China
- 关键词:
- 环焊缝失效;贝叶斯网络;条件概率;蝴蝶结模型;预防措施
Girth weld failure; Bayesian network; Conditional probability; Bow-tie model; Preventive measures
- 摘要:
近年来，油气管道在服役过程中由于环焊缝失效引发的事故呈增长趋势。为分析环焊缝失效原因并预防此类事故发生，针对2018年中石油中缅天然气输气管道事故,建立了基于贝叶斯—蝴蝶结的输气管道环焊缝失效风险识别与分析模型。建立的模型引入了故障树、失效事件树、贝叶斯网络以及蝴蝶结模型,计算了引起环焊缝失效的各个基本事件的条件概率及重要度,分析了重要度等级较高的基本事件可能产生的后果,针对重要度等级最高的基本事件提出了相应预防措施,同时提出了预防环焊缝失效发生的防护措施以及减轻事故后果的控制措施。建立的模型在马来西亚SSGP输气管道环焊缝开裂事故中得到了验证,表明其能够较为准确推演出事故发生原因,具有可推广性,能为同类问题提供借鉴,具有重要的实践意义。
In recent years, accidents caused by girth weld failure during operation of oil and gas pipelines have been increasing year by year. Therefore, to analyze the cause of girth weld failure and prevent future occurrence, in response to the 2018 CNPC China-Myanmar Gas Transmission Pipeline Incident, this paper established a Bayesian-bow-tie model to identify and analyze girth weld failure of gas transmission pipelines. The model covers the following scope:1)introduces fault tree, failure event tree, Bayesian network and bow-tie model, and calculates the conditional probability and importance of each basic event causing girth weld failure;2)analyses the possible consequences of the basic events with higher importance levels;3)proposes corresponding preventive measures for basic event which has the highest importance level. Preventive measures are proposed for basic event which has high importance level, and control measures to mitigate the consequences of the accident are also proposed. The model was verified in the girth weld cracking incident of SSGP gas transmission pipeline in Malaysia. The results show that the Bayesian-bow-tie model used to identify and analyze girth weld failure of gas transmission pipelines in this paper can deduce the cause of the accident more accurately, and can provide guidance for managing similar problems. It has important practical application significance for managing girth weld failure events.
