国家“双碳”目标背景下,通过大力发展天然气制甲醇,从源头上降低甲醇及其下游产品的碳排放,是甲醇行业绿色低碳转型发展的重要方向,为此开展了天然气制甲醇行业发展影响因素及趋势研究。通过梳理总结近五年天然气制甲醇行业发展现状及特点,提炼行业发展影响因素,并结合优劣势分析,对“十四五”时期行业发展趋势进行展望。研究表明:1)“十三五”时期,天然气制甲醇行业整体呈增长态势,具有产能集中于川渝以及西北地区的区域分布、由西部向东部流通的区域货源流通两大特点;2)受行业发展政策、原料供应紧缺、下游市场需求及同质产品竞争等四大因素影响,天然气制甲醇行业发展缓慢;3)与煤制甲醇相比,天然气制甲醇产能利用率处于劣势,在碳减排方面具备优势;4)“十四五”时期,天然气制甲醇将呈现新增甲醇项目主要自供下游配套装置、下游需求主要以甲醇制烯烃和甲醇燃料为主、产能利用率将有所提升、产量变动主要受利润波动影响等四大趋势。建议:1)加快推动天然气制甲醇船用燃料的发展;2)大力推动天然气制甲醇车用燃料的发展;3)积极开展CO2捕集、利用与封存技术的研发和示范应用;4)积极开展碳足迹认证工作。

 Under the background of Chinas carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, the carbon emission of methanol and its downstream products can be reduced from the source by vigorously developing natural gas-to-methanol, which is an important direction for the green and low-carbon transformation and development of the methanol industry. Therefore, this research on the influencing factors and trends of the development of natural gas-to-methanol industry has been carried out. By summarizing the development status and characteristics of the natural gas-to-methanol industry in the past five years, analyzing industry development influencing factors and the pros and cons, this paper provides an outlook on the development trend of the industry during the “14th Five Year Plan” period of China. Research shows that: 1) During the “13th Five Year Plan” period, the natural gas-to-methanol production industry has shown an overall growth trend, with two characteristics：the production capacity is concentrated in Sichuan and Chongqing and the northwest China, with the regional product supply moving from the west to the east. 2) The natural gas-to-methanol production industry developed slowly due to four major factors, namely industrial development policy, shortage of raw material supply, supply and demand in downstream market and competition of products with similar quality. 3) Compared with coal-to-methanol, the production capacity utilization rate of natural gas-to-methanol is at a disadvantage, and its advantages exist in carbon emission reduction. 4) During the “14th Five Year Plan” period, the methanol production from natural gas will show four trends: the newly added capacity will be mainly supporting capacity, the downstream demand will consist mainly of methanol-to-olefin and methanol as fuel, the capacity utilization rate will be improved, and the production rate change will mainly be affected by the profit fluctuation. To further enhance the development of the industry, it is suggested that: 1) Accelerate the development of natural gas-to-methanol as marine fuel. 2) Vigorously promote the development of natural gas-to-methanol as automobile fuel. 3) Proactively carry out the R & D and demonstrate the application of CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage). 4) Proactively carry out carbon footprint certification.