考虑退化与冲击过程随机相关的管道预测性维修
Study on pipeline predictive maintenance considering stochastic correlation between degradation and shock process
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- 引用格式:
-
李文琴,石慧,郑宇佳,董增寿.考虑退化与冲击过程随机相关的管道预测性维修[J].天然气与石油,2023,41(3):152-162.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.03.021
LI Wenqin, SHI Hui, Zheng Yujia, DONG Zengshou.Study on pipeline predictive maintenance considering stochastic correlation between degradation and shock process[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2023,41(3):152-162.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.03.021
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.03.021
- 作者:
- 李文琴 石慧 郑宇佳 董增寿
LI Wenqin, SHI Hui, Zheng Yujia, DONG Zengshou
- 作者单位:
- 太原科技大学电子信息工程学院, 山西 太原 030024
College of Electronic Information Engineering, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030024, China
- 关键词:
- 天然气管道;可靠性分析;预测性维修
Natural gas pipeline; Reliability analysis; Predictive maintenance
- 摘要:
针对经历退化过程且同时受外界冲击影响的天然气管道维修问题,提出了一种考虑退化与冲击过程随机相关的管道预测性维修策略。首先建立了管道退化与冲击随机相关性模型及基于变阈值的可靠性预测模型;其次根据管道可靠性建立了预测性维修决策模型并进行优化求解;最后结合实例对维修成本进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,预测性维修决策模型可以在降低成本的基础上有效提高天然气管道的安全性能,具有较好的理论参考价值。
A predictive maintenance strategy based on system residual life considering the stochastic correlation between degradation and shock is proposed for natural gas pipeline maintenance under the influence of both degradation and external shock. Firstly, the stochastic correlation model of pipeline degradation and shock and the reliability model based on variable threshold are established. Secondly, the predictive maintenance decision model is established and optimized according to the reliability of pipeline. Finally, the sensitivity of maintenance cost is analyzed with actual data. The results show that the maintenance decision model can effectively improve the safety performance of natural gas pipelines under the premise of reduced costs, and has good theoretical reference value.
