基于Kent法的非金属管道风险评价方法
Risk assessment of non-metallic oil and gas pipeline based on Kent method
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- 引用格式:
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李春雨,冯昕媛,贺焕婷,赵永平,李程,乔柏翔.基于Kent法的非金属管道风险评价方法[J].天然气与石油,2023,41(4):9-15.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.04.002
LI Chunyu, FENG Xinyuan, HE Huanting, ZHAO Yongping, LI Cheng, QIAO Boxiang.Risk assessment of non-metallic oil and gas pipeline based on Kent method[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2023,41(4):9-15.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.04.002
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.04.002
- 作者:
- 李春雨1 冯昕媛1 贺焕婷1 赵永平1 李程1 乔柏翔2
LI Chunyu1, FENG Xinyuan1, HE Huanting1, ZHAO Yongping1, LI Cheng1, QIAO Boxiang2
- 作者单位:
- 1. 中国石油青海油田公司钻采工艺研究院, 甘肃 敦煌 736200; 2. 中国石油青海油田公司采油一厂, 青海 茫崖 816400
1. Drilling & Production Technology Research Institute of PetroChina Qinghai Oilfield Company, Dunhuang, Gansu, 736200, China; 2. No.1 Oil Production Plant of PetroChina Qinghai Oilfield Company, Mangya, Qinghai, 816400, China
- 关键词:
- 非金属管道;Kent法;半定量风险评价;集输管道;风险因素;失效
Non-metallic pipe; Kent method; Semi-quantitative risk assessment; Oil and gas gathering and transmission pipeline; Risk factor; Pipeline failure
- 摘要:
风险评价是管道完整性管理的重要内容和基础,随着油气田集输管道完整性管理不断推进和发展,非金属管道无成熟风险评价方法的问题逐渐突出。基于非金属管道失效风险因素的分析和某油田非金属管道失效统计结果,建立了基于Kent法的非金属管道半定量风险评价方法。失效可能性评价指标包括第三方损坏、运行环境、设计与施工制造、误操作和水文地质灾害等5个方面49项评价指标;失效后果指标包括介质短期危害、介质最大泄漏量、介质扩散性、影响对象、社会影响和供应中断对下游用户影响等6个方面12项具体评价指标。使用专家打分法优化设置了失效可能性指标权重系数和评价指标分数,为油气田非金属集输管道风险评价的实施奠定基础。
Risk assessment is an important content and basis of pipeline integrity management. With the continuous progress and development of the integrity management of oil and gas field gathering and transmission pipelines, the lack of mature risk assessment methods for nonmetallic pipelines has become increasingly prominent. Based on the analysis of failure risk factors of non-metallic pipelines and statistical results of failures in an oilfield, a semi-quantitative risk assessment method based on the Kent method for non-metallic oil and gas transmission pipelines was established. The evaluation index of failure possibility includes 49 evaluation indices from five aspects:third-party damage, operating environment, design, manufacture and construction, mal-operation and geological hazards. The failure consequence indicators covers 6 aspects, including short-term damage caused by the medium, maximum leakage of the medium, dispersion of the medium, the affected parties, social impact, and the impact of supply interruption on downstream users, with a total of 12 specific evaluation indicators. The failure probability index weighting coefficient and evaluation index score are optimally determined by expert scoring method. This risk assessment method of non-metallic pipelines lays a foundation for the implementation of risk assessment of non-metallic gathering and transmission pipelines in oil and gasfields.
