随着中国能源结构的不断发展与调整,液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas,LNG)的使用与储存逐渐受到重视,相关设备设施规模不断扩大,所产生的安全风险问题成为研究热点。定量风险评估方法可对LNG设备设施进行风险评估,对设备设施的设计、制造、安装、操作、维护和退役等过程进行指导。综述了定量风险评估方法中场景频率计算及事故后果计算在LNG项目中的应用现状,并分析了具体实施方法和使用工具,得到了在确定设备设施泄漏频率和点火概率时常用泄漏频率数据库、专家判断及模糊数学等工具和方法。但目前中国数据库缺失,且国外数据库与中国LNG项目设备设施不匹配,亟需建立适合中国LNG项目的完整设备设施失效数据库;在确定场景频率时,通常只是静态地计算场景发生频率,没有考虑复杂系统的动态性,无法考虑新信息对场景发生频率的影响及动态的定量风险分析是当下研究热点。研究结果可为LNG项目定量风险评估的决策提供参考。

With the continuous development and adjustment of China's energy structure, the use and storage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are gradually gaining attention, and the scale of related facilities is constantly expanding. This has made safety risk a significant research focus. Quantitative risk assessment methods can be utilized to assess the risk of LNG facilities, providing guidance on the design, manufacturing, installation, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning processes of equipment and facilities. This paper summarizes the present state of implementing quantitative risk assessment methods in LNG projects, specifically examining scenario frequency calculation and incident consequence calculation. The analysis focuses on the specific methods and tools utilized in these steps, such as failure frequency databases, expert judgment, and fuzzy mathematics, which are common approaches for determining leakage frequency of equipment and facilities and ignition probability of the dispersed gas. However, there is currently a lack of databases in China. Moreover, foreign databases do not match performance data of domestic equipment and LNG projects in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a complete database on equipment and facility failures specifically tailored for Chinas LNG projects. When determining the frequency of a scenario, the calculations often rely on static calculations, which does not consider the dynamic nature of complex systems. This fails to account for the impact of new information on the scenario occurrence frequency. Thus, dynamic quantitative risk analysis is a hot topic of current research. The results of this research can provide valuable insights for decision-making regarding quantitative risk assessment for LNG projects.