为预测2050年世界能源发展趋势，基于bp公司发布的《bp世界能源展望(2024年版)》(以下简称《展望》),对2050年世界能源市场的发展趋势进行分析和总结。《展望》中设定“当前路径情景”和“净零情景”两种发展情景,分析结果表明:在“当前路径情景”下,一次能源需求总量增速或减速平缓,到2050年,化石能源占一次能源消费比例的三分之二,石油消费量逐渐下降但在世界能源结构中发挥重要作用,天然气需求呈现增长趋势,碳排放量仍然较高;在“净零情景”下,世界能源结构将产生更为显著的变革,一次能源需求量在2030年达到峰值,随后开始逐渐下降,到2050年,化石能源在一次能源中占比将下降至三分之一以下,能源结构中净碳排放量接近于0,石油和天然气需求量较2022年分别降低65%和62%。在上述两种情景中,可再生能源和低碳氢的需求皆快速增长;中国正致力于向低碳能源系统转型以减少碳排放,预计到2050年,中国能源消费量和碳排放量将大幅下降,在“净零情景”下能源转型速度更快,低碳能源占比更高,碳捕集、利用与封存技术发挥关键作用。分析结果可为世界能源结构转型与发展提供借鉴。

In order to predict the trends of world energy development in 2050, the development trends of the world energy market in 2050 is analyzed and summarized based on the report “bp World Energy Outlook(2024 Edition)” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outlook”) published by bp. In the Outlook, two different development scenarios are set up, namely the “current path scenario” and the “net zero scenario”. The analysis results show that under the “current path scenario”, the growth rate of total primary energy demand will fluctuate moderately and stay at a plateau level during the outlook period. Fossil energy will account for twothirds of primary energy consumption by 2050, and oil will continue to play an important role in the world's energy system despite a gradual decline in its consumption. Demand for natural gas shows a growing trend due to the development of emerging economies; and carbon emissions remain high under this scenario. In contrast, in the “Net Zero Scenario”, the world's energy system will undergo more significant changes, with primary energy demand peaking in 2030 and then gradually declining, and the share of fossil energy in primary energy will drop to less than one-third in 2050, with net carbon emissions in the energy system approaching zero. Oil and natural gas demand will be reduced by 65% and 62%, respectively, compared to 2022. In both scenarios, demand for renewable energy and lowcarbon hydrogen grows rapidly. China is committed to transitioning to a low-carbon energy system in order to reduce carbon emissions, and energy consumption and carbon emissions are expected to fall significantly by 2050, with a faster energy transformation and a higher share of low-carbon energy in the Net Zero Scenario, in which CCUS technologies will play a key role. The results of the analysis can provide reference for the transformation and development of the worlds energy structure.