中国油气进出口30年状况分析
Analysis of China's oil and gas imports and exports over the past 30 years
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- 引用格式:
-
李泽,方瑞瑞,冯连勇.中国油气进出口30年状况分析[J].天然气与石油,2025,43(1):136-143.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2025.01.018
LI Ze, FANG Ruirui, FENG Lianyong.Analysis of China's oil and gas imports and exports over the past 30 years[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2025,43(1):136-143.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2025.01.018
- DOI:
- 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2025.01.018
- 作者:
- 李泽 方瑞瑞 冯连勇
LI Ze, FANG Ruirui, FENG Lianyong
- 作者单位:
- 中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院, 北京 102249
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing, 102249, China
- 关键词:
- 原油;成品油;天然气;进出口;贸易
Crude oil; Refined oil products; Natural gas; Import and export; Trade
- 摘要:
- 通过深入分析1994—2023年中国油气进出口状况,发现过去30年里,中国的油气贸易合作不断深化,取得了瞩目成就,但对进口油气的依赖程度、供应风险也显著增大。中国的原油从1994年净出口620.65×104 t到2023年净进口56 257×104 t,表观对外依存度从2000年的26.85%大幅攀升为2023年的72.91%。1994—2014年中国的成品油为净进口状态,2015年开始转为净出口,2023年净出口1 515×104
t。天然气进口自2007年从14.2×108
m3跃升到2023年的1 589.5×108 m3,表观对外依存度从2.01%上升为40.61%。未来,在国际能源格局进入结构调整和动态期的背景下,中国油气进口依旧存在过度依赖、通道安全问题,为应对挑战,应继续强化增产上储能力,加速炼化行业转型升级,深化“一带一路”稳固、可靠的能源合作,积极开拓海外权益资产增量以确保国家能源安全。
Through in-depth analysis of China's oil and gas import and export situation from 1994 to 2023, it is concluded that China's oil and gas trade cooperation has been deepening over the past 30 years, and has made remarkable achievements, but the dependence on imported oil and gas, and the risk of security of supply has also increased significantly. China's crude oil reached a net import of 562.57 million ton in 2023 from a net export of 6.20 million ton in 1994, and the apparent external dependence rose sharply from 26.85% in 2000 to 72.91% in 2023. China's refined oil products were in a net import status from the year 1994 to 2014, and began to turn into a net export in 2015. In 2023, the net export of refined oil products was 15.15 million ton. Natural gas imports have been rising since 2007, jumping from 1.42×109 m3 to 158.95×109 m3 in 2023, with apparent external dependence rising from 2.01% to 40.61% accordingly. In the future, as the international energy market enters into a period of structural adjustment and dynamic change, China's oil and gas imports are still facing the problems of over-reliance and supply channel security. In order to manage the challenges, China should continue to strengthen the ability to increase production and storage capacity, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of refining and petrochemical industry, deepen the stable and reliable energy cooperation of the “the Belt and Road” initiative, and actively develop and increase overseas equity assets to ensure national energy security.