为探求中国在天然气调峰能力远低于美国的情况下未发生大规模气荒的原因,需找到不同能源结构、运营模式下国内外天然气调峰需求差异,提出中国能源结构改革阶段、“双碳”目标约束下储气调峰能力建设的工作思路。从资源禀赋、能源消费结构、运营模式、天然气基础设施水平和市场化程度等影响因素入手,分析国内外天然气调峰能力差异成因、主要差异点。认为天然气消费占比、市场化程度、参与主体私有化、天然气储备规模、气源构成及对外依存度等是影响调峰能力的主要因素,并提出在化石能源格局变化与新能源发展的背景下,全国天然气调峰能力建设指标研究思路。研究成果可为国内储气库及LNG工程建设提供建设规模及运行模式借鉴。

To explore the reason why China has not experienced a large-scale gas shortage despite its peak shaving capacity being much lower than that of the United States, it is necessary to find out the difference in domestic and foreign natural gas peak shaving demands under different energy structures and operation modes. This paper puts forward ideas for building gas storage peak shaving capacity during China's energy structure reform phase under dual-carbon constraints. Based on factors such as resource endowment, energy consumption structure, operation modes, natural gas infrastructure levels and marketization degree, this paper analyzes the causes and main differences of domestic and foreign natural gas peak shaving capabilities. It is believed that the proportion of natural gas consumption, the degree of marketization, the privatization of participants, the scale of natural gas reserves, the composition of gas sources and the degree of external dependence are the main factors affecting peak shaving demand. Furthermore, it proposes a research framework for national capacity building index of natural gas peak shaving under the changing fossil energy pattern and emerging new energy development. The study results can provide reference for the development and operation model of domestic gas storage and LNG engineering.