基于Monte Carlo方法的SCV加热盘管可靠性评价
Reliability Evaluation of SCV Heating Coil Based on Monte Carlo Method
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- 引用格式:
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邓娇,侯磊,李丽敏,文亚成.基于Monte Carlo方法的SCV加热盘管可靠性评价[J].天然气与石油,2018,36(1):0.doi:
Deng Jiao,Hou Lei,Li Limin,Wen Yacheng.Reliability Evaluation of SCV Heating Coil Based on Monte Carlo Method[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2018,36(1):0.doi:
- DOI:
- 作者:
- 邓 娇1,2 侯 磊1 李丽敏3 文亚成1
Deng Jiao1,2,Hou Lei1,Li Limin3,Wen Yacheng1
- 作者单位:
- 1. 中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院,2. 中国市政工程中南设计研究总院, 3. 大庆油田采油六厂
1. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing),2.Central and Southern China Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute Co.,Ltd
- 关键词:
- 气化器;加热盘管;Monte Carlo抽样;可靠性
SCV; Heating coil; Monte Carlo sampling; Reliability
- 摘要:
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浸没燃烧式气化器(Submerged Combustion Vaporizer,SCV)的水浴对加热盘管具有腐蚀作用,威胁气化器的安全运行。为研究加热盘管的腐蚀过程,采用应力-强度干涉理论和管道腐蚀剩余强度评估标准,对加热盘管的腐蚀失效进行分析,建立加热盘管的极限状态方程。考虑初始腐蚀尺寸、工况载荷、机械强度、轴向及径向腐蚀增长速率等参数的不确定性,应用Monte Carlo方法对加热盘管的极限状态方程进行抽样计算,抽样次数为106。通过对加热盘管进行可靠性定量评价,明确加热盘管可靠度随时间和运行压力的变化趋势。研究结果表明:加热盘管失效概率随使用年限和运行压力的增加而增加,且增加的速度逐渐增快,若以0.8为可靠度下限,则加热盘管的使用寿命为14 a。这一可靠性分析为掌握气化器总体运行状况和合理安排维修提供了科学依据。
The water bath of thesubmerged combustion vaporizerhas a corrosive effect on the heating coil and poses a threat to safe operation. To study the corrosion process of heating coil, the corrosion failure of the heating coil is analyzed and the limit state equation is established on the basis of the stress - intensity interference theory and the evaluation standard of pipeline corrosion residual strength.Considering the uncertainties of parameters, Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the limit state equation and the sampling time is 106.The quantitative evaluation for reliability of heating coil clarifies the trend of coil reliability over time and operating pressure.The results show that the failure probability of heating coil increases when the service time and operating pressure increases.If the lower limit of reliability is 0.8, then the service life of heating coil life will be 14 years. This reliability analysis provides a scientific basis for mastering the overall operation and rationalizing the maintenance.